Two weeks into the new year, the digital infrastructure space landscape continues to shift and expand in its usual breakneck fashion, and industry watchers are out with their 2025 predictions. Let’s take a look at what the TD Securities Equity Research TD Cowen Communications Infrastructure/Cable, Satellite and Telco Team predicts could come as SURPRISES in 2025.
Michael Elias and his team are out with their 11th annual list of “Top 10 Potential Surprises” for 2025, focused on events that are 1) underappreciated by investors, 2) have a chance of occurring in 2025 and 3) could be associated with significant stock price ramifications for their companies under coverage. What’s the “surprise” factor? A less than 50% likelihood event that’s not being currently discussed or anticipated by the market but makes a big splash. So, ranked by most to least likely to occur, what did they come up with?
10. “Safety” Telco Stocks Work As the AI Bubble Bursts
9. Marc Ganzi Takes Digital Bridge Private
8. NVIDIA Leads the Hyperscale Data Center Leasing League Tables In 2025
7. Wireless Disappoints with Fewer than 7MM Postpaid Phone Net Adds in 2025
6. Equinix Acquires a U.S. Hyperscale Data Center Platform for xScale
5. Big Cable Acquires or JVs with EchoStar Corporation for Mobile Owners’ Economics
4. Crown Castle is the Best Performing Comm. Infra. Stock
3. Comcast and Charter Communications Agree on AaCable Mega Merger
2. Google Monetizes its U.S. Self-Built Data Center Capacity via Sale-Leaseback
1. TMT/Telco Analyst Gregory Williams, CFA Names His Baby After a TMT/Telco CEO
Alrighty then! A lot to unpack here, so we’ll take it from the top…
10. “Safety” Telco Stocks Work as the AI Bubble Bursts
While the team believes “GenAI is here to stay with use cases that promise significant changes in our society,” it also quotes DigitalBridge’s estimate of $7 TRILLION in AI-driven incremental infrastructure spend as Dot-Com Bubble reminiscent. If in fact we’re in another situation where “there was too much capital chasing too little near-term returns,” manifesting in another Bubble burst, investors could shift away from AI stocks into more defensive Telco stocks like AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon.
9. CEO Marc Ganzi Takes Digital Bridge Private
Making a repeat appearance from their 2024 Top 10 Surprises List, the team reiterates their theory that Digital Bridge is undervalued, particularly given the value it has created within its data center platforms. Taking the company private will “allow the management team to focus on driving long-term value within their existing portfolio companies and fundraise without the pressure of quarterly earnings,” the team points out. They add that a wave of take-privates occurred in 2021/22 among data centers for a similar reason.
8. NVIDIA Leads the Hyperscale Data Center Leasing League Tables In 2025
TD Cowen’s monthly Data Center Channel Checks have been revealing multiple +100MW requirements across multiple US markets for NVIDIA for several months now, a meaningful divergence from its history of leasing 10-15MW capacity blocks. The team has learned that the larger capacity blocks are intended to support an “AI cloud,” which could signal the start of an effort to compete with the larger CSPs.
7. Wireless Disappoints with Fewer than 7MM Postpaid Phone Net Adds In 2025
Given that the wireless industry added almost 9MM phone subscribers in 2024, against a backdrop of US population growth of just 1.6MM people, a stepdown to fewer than 7MM industry phone adds would be a hard landing indeed, but the team is not ruling it out based on long-term estimates by the industry’s leaders. Many countervailing factors must be considered, including: more younger and fewer older people getting phones, shifts to prepaid phones among certain demographics, population growth trends and various use cases such as AI. Currently, the team is estimating 7.9MM industry net adds in 2025.
6. Equinix Acquires a U.S. Hyperscale Data Center Platform for xScale
Here’s a big one. Will Equinix take its US xScale expansion to the next level in 2025? According to the TD Cowen team, “Equinix’s U.S. xScale expansion is a defensive move to both secure long-term access to power for its colocation data centers and to maintain relevance in the supply chain. We see the potential for Equinix to acquire a U.S. hyperscale oriented data center platform to expedite its speed to market.”
5. Big Cable Acquires or JVs with EchoStar Corporation for Mobile Owners’ Economics
Big Cable transactions are a recurring theme in the Top Surprises list each year and this year’s “surprise” underscores what the team sees as another year of desperation on the part of Cable and Dish operators. EchoStar Corporation needs balance sheet flexibility, and in an “Age of Convergence,” according to the team, Big Cable’s “only assurance could be to own the infrastructure on both sides of the convergence sandbox.”
4. Crown Castle is the Best Performing Comm. Infra. Stock
Here’s a Surprise that’s also a Comeback Kid: Crown Castle was the worst performing U.S. Tower company in 2024, down 21.2%. The TD Cowen team believes Crown Castle is on the verge of turning things around. The imminent sale of its Fiber business to TPG and resulting dividend cut this year will reestablish the business as a pure play US tower company that will ultimately command a premium. But the best performer? That must be why this one ranks #4…
3. Comcast and Charter Communications Agree on a Cable Mega Merger
While the team concedes that, post-election, the “if” part is no surprise, they maintain the “when” part certainly is. According to the note, “For Big Cable, the new White House administration could provide a window of opportunity to go big. What needs to be solved eventually should be solved immediately.” A sure sign of a no-go: Comcast starts investing in big share repurchases instead.
2. Google Monetizes its U.S. Self-Built Data Center Capacity via Sale-Leaseback
As Google continues to grapple with calls from the US Department of Justice to break up and sell off various businesses, the team turns to Google’s existing self-built data center footprint, which currently serves Search, YouTube, its Google Cloud and other Google applications. Should Google be forced to sell certain applications, the team envisions a scenario where Google could monetize its data centers “to avoid a major re-architecting of its data center footprint.” Estimating total capacity at 2.7GW, the team outlined one sale-leaseback transaction where Google sells their capacity at a 6% cap rate and leases the capacity back at $140kW/month, suggesting a ~$60.5B valuation. Since that’s pretty rich for just about any financial sponsor or data center operator, the team suggests a data center spin-out and IPO could be another way to go.
1. TMT/Telco Analyst Greg Williams Names His Baby After a TMT/Telco CEO
It is certainly apropos that the least likely “Surprise” on this list is that TMT/Telco analyst Gregory Williams, CFA‘s wife Tiffany will allow him to name their firstborn baby boy, due in June, after one of the CEOs in his coverage group!
While “Williams” is quite a forgiving last name that pairs well with “Hans” ( Verizon ), “Giordano” ( Vertiv ), and “Jensen” ( NVIDIA ), we think Greg will save the real “surprise” for when little boy Williams arrives!
So, what do you think of these predictions? Are there any you’d get behind? Any you’d move up the list in order of likelihood? Let us know in the comments!
Many thanks as always to the TD Securities Equity Research TD Cowen Communications Infrastructure/Cable, Satellite and Telco Team: Michael Elias, Gregory Williams, CFA, Cooper Belanger and Anton Rinnert for the insights and, in this case, entertainment!
We look forward to seeing how this year’s list plays out for you!
